Futures Studies Analysis of Transformative Technologies in the Banking Industry
Keywords:
Transformative technologies, banking industry, futures studies, strategic foresight, Delphi analysis, cross-impact evaluation, digital transformation, artificial intelligence, blockchain, open bankingAbstract
This study aims to forecast and analyze the future trajectory of transformative technologies shaping the banking industry using a comprehensive futures studies approach. This research employed a qualitative futures studies design integrating expert elicitation, thematic content analysis, Delphi rounds, and cross-impact evaluation. Participants were selected through purposive and snowball sampling to include banking strategists, fintech specialists, digital transformation managers, regulators, and academic experts. Data collection involved semi-structured interviews, document analysis of national and international foresight reports, and two Delphi rounds designed to refine consensus on the significance, adoption timelines, and systemic interactions of transformative technologies. Analytical procedures included thematic coding, consensus stability evaluation using interquartile ranges, prioritization matrices, and structural cross-impact mapping to identify causal relationships among emerging technologies and their implications for future banking scenarios. Inferential analysis demonstrated strong expert consensus that artificial intelligence, blockchain, open banking ecosystems, cloud-native infrastructures, digital identity systems, and quantum-resistant cryptography represent the highest-impact transformative technologies for future banking. Delphi stability metrics showed convergence of opinions for AI, blockchain, open banking, and cloud systems, while emerging technologies such as IoT-based banking and metaverse financial services exhibited low stability and weak consensus. Cross-impact modeling revealed reinforcing relationships between AI and open banking, blockchain and digital identity, and cloud systems and AI, indicating interdependent technological clusters that collectively shape high-probability future scenarios. These inferential results underscore systemic technological interconnections and identify the core drivers most likely to influence long-term industry transformation. The study concludes that banking institutions must prioritize foundational transformative technologies, monitor systemic interactions, and adopt structured foresight methodologies to remain resilient in an increasingly uncertain and technologically dynamic environment.
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