Journal of Management and Business Solutions 3092-7226 3 Serial Number 12 2025 03 28 Scenario Planning for Employment Development Strategies in the Agricultural Sector Scenario Planning for Employment Development Strategies in the Agricultural Sector 1 12 EN Journal Article 2024 11 18 <p>The purpose of the present study was to conduct scenario planning for employment development strategies in the agricultural sector. The required data were collected through a Delphi questionnaire and extracted from the viewpoints of experts and specialists, leading to the identification of key drivers influencing employment-development strategies in agriculture. Considering these elements and integrating them into agricultural development strategies using a futures-studies approach can create an enabling environment for sustainable job creation and higher productivity in this sector. For this purpose, the cross-impact analysis matrix method was employed. Among the significant drivers, 22 were identified as the most important: market and product prices; infrastructure and technology; training and consulting; cooperation development; risk management and market monitoring; facilities and services; technological innovations; online platforms; advanced technologies; intelligent systems; product quality management; environmental research; development of information systems; climate change and its impacts; sustainable resource use; awareness-raising and education; natural resource management; pollution reduction and quality preservation; training and awareness; promotion of agricultural culture and identity; cultural activities and festivals; economic and livelihood development; and cultural development and promotion. Using the identified drivers, the scenario space was developed, and five scenarios with the highest likelihood of occurrence were identified and formulated. Among them, the first scenario, with a 66% probability, was selected as the most plausible scenario. Ultimately, it can be concluded that the first scenario—centered on infrastructure development, market stability, and human-resource training—represents the most desirable pathway and is capable of influencing more than 60% of sustainable employment development in this sector. Therefore, achieving this preferred vision requires national commitment and the formulation of integrated strategies focused on strengthening these key drivers simultaneously.</p> https://www.journalmbs.com/index.php/jmbs/article/download/105/100